“Murder is low today because doctors save more victims of violent crime, making these crimes not murder” is a pretty brilliant point. I wish I had thought about that!
It's been known for a while. Especially in the last 20 years, the ability to revive and save a young person with a couple bullet holes has increased quite substantially. One factor was the trauma surgeons who had experience in the Iraquistan wars came back and worked in high crime areas. Someone over 40 may not fare as well, docs can't replace what Nature takes away.
Unfortunately, in the case of un-connected party street crime (the most feared type) the attacker is usually younger and the target older. So the criminal is more likely to be saved than the victim.
Implementing tough on crime measures is not a question of popular will, imo, but rather, our ruling elites want high crime/murder rates and a terrorized population...
Certainly, but also remember our elites are removed from the consequences of their actions. Gated communities and private protection service can do wonders for one’s Leftist outlook.
Clearly, a proper functioning legal system could reduce crime in The United States to rates like Japan. Imagine the cost savings to a society. Our entire society is held hostage to crime day in and day out.
While I agree with Arcotheriums main points, thinking that the US could reach the crime levels of Japan is naive. He does not take the cultural, racial, and historical differences between the two countries seriously enough.
I agree with you. The homogenous nature of the Japanese culture and education system is their very strength and weakness. Some societies have had exceedingly low crime rates due to their education systems and cultural outlooks. Ours will never be that of Finland or Japan or Iceland. While we cannot erase the adverse cultural issues a proper functioning justice system could make a huge difference as could an education system that focused on cultural values as much as academic acumen. We are failing in both. No great education without discipline in the class room. I might add that our every problem begins with individual irresponsible or criminal behavior. Both are encouraged by misplaced compassion.
My precious son was murdered in 2020 for no reason by a gang member out on probation. His father and brothers were also part of the most notorious gang in our city. I quickly learned that crime is committed by a small number of criminals in a small number of zip codes. People who live outside those zip codes tend to ignore crime and the criminals. Until like me they become victims. I have spent the last four years pursuing justice for my son and after a long road butting heads with politicians and reluctant prosecutors the young man who killed my son is serving a 60 year prison sentence. I give thanks to Detective Prater who never gave up. I pray for the soul of the young man who killed my son.
What are your thoughts on the claims that the rehabilitative systems of Northern Europe work better than the retributive systems of America? I think it’s pretty clear that deterrence through the meanness of prisons doesn’t really work on repeat offenders, they obviously don’t think about the consequences of their actions enough to really consider that. prison is mainly a criminal containment chamber, and we contain them until they’re old and less criminally inclined. I think the issue with American prisons is that it creates a competitive environment where many men resort to fitness, raising their testosterone and subsequently their criminality. We want criminals in docile environment like Soyjak
Great article. I think Richard Hanania clued me into this problem originally with a reference to medical technology driving down homicide rates, but it's good to see a more general overview.
“Fortunately, however, a stricter regime does not necessarily imply more false positives, for the following reasons:”
It’s simple math. Three strikes laws were good ones. Say there was a ridiculously high false positive rate of 1 in 10, or 10%. 1/10 x’s 1/10 x’s 1/10 is a false positive rate of 1/1000. For those who claim an unfair sentence of life in prison, say of a third strike for a theft of a pizza, then the “enhanced” sentence could be a blend of those prior sentences for such crimes previously convicted of. So a pizza theft might get 10 years rather than probation—but not life. Violent crimes are excluded from blending.
The real problem is we are now a society which has lost its will to survive and thrive. This being due to the aspect of multiculturalism stemming from demographic change. Since much crime differences are directly and observably correlated with race/culture. One can’t arbitrarily punish crime per se, as “Justice” is not blind, but must be distributed “equality” across racial lines.
We actually saw this even in our public school systems starting with the Obama administration where discipline, such as expulsions were tracked as to racial application. Example, if you expelled more unruly Blacks than Whites—Blacks of course having a hire percentage of unruly students—you were liable to have Fed funds impounded. Discipline was therefore mandated to be rationed equally across racial lines—regardless of racial proclivities to such offence.
Our pathological equalitarianism will be the end of us—at least as an advanced and civilized 1st world society.
Finally, I’ll end with a note that many of the statistics cited, if broken down by race will show a favorable comparison for some demographics to those “Elysian” countries cited. There really is nothing more to be said. We don’t have a crime problem per se, we have a diversity problem.
If we take medical advances and CCTV into account (which we should), we probably also have to take advances in offensive technology into account too. It’s a lot easier to 1. Travel quickly to a neighborhood that’s not yours, 2. Discreetly carry a reliable firearm, and 3. Travel quickly and discreetly away from the scene of the crime.
All things considered I’d much rather have to murder someone today than in 1915. I’d guess there were a lot more bar fights then, but many fewer gun murders. If you gave everyone in those bar fights a modern handgun and a car waiting outside, the murder rate would’ve been much higher.
That said, I agree with the conclusion - we shouldn’t be ok with crime rates above Japan. More incapacitation, yes, but also a much stronger and more technologically sophisticated surveillance state. We’ll never get it here because everyone reads 1984 as a teen and society over-learned the lessons.
Young black men (15-34) are just 2% of the nation’s population and yet commit about half of all annual homicides. A rate an astounding 49 times higher than that of the average American. Most of their victims are other young black men. If we took action such as returning to a policy of stop and frisk in our inner cities we would save thousands of black lives every year.
The standard tactic on the left has been to point to the decline (in the homocide rate) since the peaks in the 90's and say that everyone is being hysterical. They're still doing that despite the fact that since the BLM days even that trend has reversed quite markedly. Progressives seem to have isolated themselves from reality very well since 2016 though so things like that tend not to make it through the filter.
This piece seems to suggest that even the decline since the 90's is kind of BS as a proxy for overall crime, which is crazy. It basically means we've had probably 60 years of law and order policies making things worse while at the same time we have people like Stephen Pinker crowing about how all the stats prove everything is wonderful. It's very Soviet.
"They are from more common crimes like assault, mugging, burglary, housebreaking, and rape, as well as general public disorder (both directly and in the huge costs people pay to avoid it). Murder is a reasonably good proxy for these things in the short term because all crime and disorder tends to go together. "
I will admit your hypothesis made a lot of sense... and looking the actual rates for these common crimes partially confirms it, but also paints a somewhat different picture: https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
Murder rates were approximately the same in 2019 as in 2016, while burglary rates went down by 33%, vehicle theft rates increased by 20%, robbery rates increased by 33%, larceny theft rates increased by 50% and aggravated assault rates increased by an astonishing 190% (rape rates even more, but the definition seriously changed, so I left them out).
It seems that property crime rates didn't increase that much (by 20%) while the violent crime rate more than doubled.
I have a simpler hypothesis. The legal bar to charge someone for aggravated assault has declined, so less serious cases get filed under that category, and thus the mortality rate goes down. Changing definitions issue, not medicine hiding violence by making violence less lethal.
“Murder is low today because doctors save more victims of violent crime, making these crimes not murder” is a pretty brilliant point. I wish I had thought about that!
It's been known for a while. Especially in the last 20 years, the ability to revive and save a young person with a couple bullet holes has increased quite substantially. One factor was the trauma surgeons who had experience in the Iraquistan wars came back and worked in high crime areas. Someone over 40 may not fare as well, docs can't replace what Nature takes away.
Unfortunately, in the case of un-connected party street crime (the most feared type) the attacker is usually younger and the target older. So the criminal is more likely to be saved than the victim.
Implementing tough on crime measures is not a question of popular will, imo, but rather, our ruling elites want high crime/murder rates and a terrorized population...
Certainly, but also remember our elites are removed from the consequences of their actions. Gated communities and private protection service can do wonders for one’s Leftist outlook.
Clearly, a proper functioning legal system could reduce crime in The United States to rates like Japan. Imagine the cost savings to a society. Our entire society is held hostage to crime day in and day out.
While I agree with Arcotheriums main points, thinking that the US could reach the crime levels of Japan is naive. He does not take the cultural, racial, and historical differences between the two countries seriously enough.
I agree with you. The homogenous nature of the Japanese culture and education system is their very strength and weakness. Some societies have had exceedingly low crime rates due to their education systems and cultural outlooks. Ours will never be that of Finland or Japan or Iceland. While we cannot erase the adverse cultural issues a proper functioning justice system could make a huge difference as could an education system that focused on cultural values as much as academic acumen. We are failing in both. No great education without discipline in the class room. I might add that our every problem begins with individual irresponsible or criminal behavior. Both are encouraged by misplaced compassion.
My precious son was murdered in 2020 for no reason by a gang member out on probation. His father and brothers were also part of the most notorious gang in our city. I quickly learned that crime is committed by a small number of criminals in a small number of zip codes. People who live outside those zip codes tend to ignore crime and the criminals. Until like me they become victims. I have spent the last four years pursuing justice for my son and after a long road butting heads with politicians and reluctant prosecutors the young man who killed my son is serving a 60 year prison sentence. I give thanks to Detective Prater who never gave up. I pray for the soul of the young man who killed my son.
Incredible article. Very well done and informative. Eye opening.
What are your thoughts on the claims that the rehabilitative systems of Northern Europe work better than the retributive systems of America? I think it’s pretty clear that deterrence through the meanness of prisons doesn’t really work on repeat offenders, they obviously don’t think about the consequences of their actions enough to really consider that. prison is mainly a criminal containment chamber, and we contain them until they’re old and less criminally inclined. I think the issue with American prisons is that it creates a competitive environment where many men resort to fitness, raising their testosterone and subsequently their criminality. We want criminals in docile environment like Soyjak
Great article. I think Richard Hanania clued me into this problem originally with a reference to medical technology driving down homicide rates, but it's good to see a more general overview.
“Fortunately, however, a stricter regime does not necessarily imply more false positives, for the following reasons:”
It’s simple math. Three strikes laws were good ones. Say there was a ridiculously high false positive rate of 1 in 10, or 10%. 1/10 x’s 1/10 x’s 1/10 is a false positive rate of 1/1000. For those who claim an unfair sentence of life in prison, say of a third strike for a theft of a pizza, then the “enhanced” sentence could be a blend of those prior sentences for such crimes previously convicted of. So a pizza theft might get 10 years rather than probation—but not life. Violent crimes are excluded from blending.
The real problem is we are now a society which has lost its will to survive and thrive. This being due to the aspect of multiculturalism stemming from demographic change. Since much crime differences are directly and observably correlated with race/culture. One can’t arbitrarily punish crime per se, as “Justice” is not blind, but must be distributed “equality” across racial lines.
We actually saw this even in our public school systems starting with the Obama administration where discipline, such as expulsions were tracked as to racial application. Example, if you expelled more unruly Blacks than Whites—Blacks of course having a hire percentage of unruly students—you were liable to have Fed funds impounded. Discipline was therefore mandated to be rationed equally across racial lines—regardless of racial proclivities to such offence.
Our pathological equalitarianism will be the end of us—at least as an advanced and civilized 1st world society.
Finally, I’ll end with a note that many of the statistics cited, if broken down by race will show a favorable comparison for some demographics to those “Elysian” countries cited. There really is nothing more to be said. We don’t have a crime problem per se, we have a diversity problem.
If we take medical advances and CCTV into account (which we should), we probably also have to take advances in offensive technology into account too. It’s a lot easier to 1. Travel quickly to a neighborhood that’s not yours, 2. Discreetly carry a reliable firearm, and 3. Travel quickly and discreetly away from the scene of the crime.
All things considered I’d much rather have to murder someone today than in 1915. I’d guess there were a lot more bar fights then, but many fewer gun murders. If you gave everyone in those bar fights a modern handgun and a car waiting outside, the murder rate would’ve been much higher.
That said, I agree with the conclusion - we shouldn’t be ok with crime rates above Japan. More incapacitation, yes, but also a much stronger and more technologically sophisticated surveillance state. We’ll never get it here because everyone reads 1984 as a teen and society over-learned the lessons.
Young black men (15-34) are just 2% of the nation’s population and yet commit about half of all annual homicides. A rate an astounding 49 times higher than that of the average American. Most of their victims are other young black men. If we took action such as returning to a policy of stop and frisk in our inner cities we would save thousands of black lives every year.
Huge if true, I always believed the « there is no real crime raise, it is only the media bringing attention on them » argument
The standard tactic on the left has been to point to the decline (in the homocide rate) since the peaks in the 90's and say that everyone is being hysterical. They're still doing that despite the fact that since the BLM days even that trend has reversed quite markedly. Progressives seem to have isolated themselves from reality very well since 2016 though so things like that tend not to make it through the filter.
This piece seems to suggest that even the decline since the 90's is kind of BS as a proxy for overall crime, which is crazy. It basically means we've had probably 60 years of law and order policies making things worse while at the same time we have people like Stephen Pinker crowing about how all the stats prove everything is wonderful. It's very Soviet.
"They are from more common crimes like assault, mugging, burglary, housebreaking, and rape, as well as general public disorder (both directly and in the huge costs people pay to avoid it). Murder is a reasonably good proxy for these things in the short term because all crime and disorder tends to go together. "
I will admit your hypothesis made a lot of sense... and looking the actual rates for these common crimes partially confirms it, but also paints a somewhat different picture: https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
Murder rates were approximately the same in 2019 as in 2016, while burglary rates went down by 33%, vehicle theft rates increased by 20%, robbery rates increased by 33%, larceny theft rates increased by 50% and aggravated assault rates increased by an astonishing 190% (rape rates even more, but the definition seriously changed, so I left them out).
It seems that property crime rates didn't increase that much (by 20%) while the violent crime rate more than doubled.
I have a simpler hypothesis. The legal bar to charge someone for aggravated assault has declined, so less serious cases get filed under that category, and thus the mortality rate goes down. Changing definitions issue, not medicine hiding violence by making violence less lethal.
Like most things, it's probably a bit of both
xisters https://imgur.com/a/IBlFOPn
ronnie came back https://imgur.com/a/IBlFOPn
mind blown like mcnutt https://imgur.com/a/IBlFOPn